Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics
Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2006392117
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发表时间：
2020-09-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lee, Ronald D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, Joshua R.;Lee, Ronald D.
为了正确估计 COVID-19 死亡率，我们估计了这种流行病的特定年龄死亡率，出于说明目的，该流行病夺去了 100 万人的生命，结果大致可在广泛的死亡范围内进行扩展。我们计算了对期间预期寿命（下降 2.94 年）和剩余生命年（每次死亡减少 11.7 年）的影响。避免 175 万人死亡或 20.5 万亿人年损失的价值将达到 10.2 至 17.5 万亿美元。其他国家的 COVID-19 死亡率的年龄模式非常相似，并且以接近每个国家全因死亡率的速度增加。 100 万人死于 COVID-19 的情况在规模上与长达数十年的艾滋病毒/艾滋病和阿片类药物过量流行的规模相似，但比 1918 年西班牙流感的规模要小得多。与艾滋病毒/艾滋病和阿片类药物流行病不同，COVID-19 死亡集中在几个月内，而不是分散在几十年内。
To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country's rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.