A Personalized and Practical Method for Analyzing the Risk of Chemical Terrorist Attacks
A Personalized and Practical Method for Analyzing the Risk of Chemical Terrorist Attacks
复制标题
分析化学恐怖袭击风险的个性化实用方法
DOI：
10.1109/access.2020.2991305
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Ye Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu Rongchen;Hu Xiaofeng;Li Xin;Ye Han
化学恐怖袭击是威胁城市安全的一种非常规恐怖主义。这种恐怖袭击具有很强的隐蔽性，很难被发现。一旦攻击成功，后果将是严重的，影响范围将是巨大的。因此，公安应急部门需要进行风险分析和知识动态更新，以降低风险或减轻事故的影响。为了快速有效地分析化学恐怖袭击风险，提出了一种混合方法（B-R模型）来分析化学恐怖袭击风险。首先，建立了模块化、可定制的贝叶斯网络模型库，满足用户选择多维风险因素的需求。在个性化BN的基础上，利用多源数据构建风险知识图（RKG），实现风险分析与知识获取的结合。然后计算并显示恐怖组织的威胁程度、防御力量的强弱以及目标的风险值。BN-RKG方法为卫勤人员的资源配置和应急决策提供了数据和理论支持。最后，进行了一个案例研究的假设情景分析。结果表明，混合方法可以帮助风险控制，并有可能支持实际决策。
The chemical terrorist attack is a type of unconventional terrorism that threatens the safety of cities. This kind of terrorist attack is highly concealed and difficult to be detected. Once the attack is successful, the consequences will be severe and the scope of impact will be enormous. Therefore, public security and emergency departments need to perform risk analysis and dynamic knowledge update to reduce risk or mitigate the effects of accidents. In order to quickly and effectively analyze the risk of chemical terrorist attacks, this article proposed a hybrid approach (B-R model) to analyze the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. First, a modular and customizable Bayesian network (BN) model library was built, which can satisfy users to select multi-dimensional risk factors. Based on the personalized BN, a risk knowledge graph (RKG) is constructed with multi-source data to realize the combination of risk analysis and knowledge acquisition. Then the threat degree of terrorist organizations, the strength of defensive forces, and the risk value of targets is calculated and displayed. The BN-RKG method provides data and theoretical support for defenders’ resource allocation and emergency decision-making. Finally, a case study was conducted for a hypothetical scenario analysis. The result shows that the hybrid method can help with risk control and have the potential to support practical policymaking.
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