Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps
Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps
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DOI：
10.1002/2014jb011775
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Rosi, Mauro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bevilacqua, Andrea;Isaia, Roberto;Rosi, Mauro
Campi Flegrei是一个活跃的火山地区，位于坎帕尼亚平原（意大利），主要是一个复活的火山口。过去的绝大多数喷发都是爆炸性的，在规模、强度和喷发口位置上都是多变的。在这项危险评估研究中，我们提出了一种概率分析，利用各种火山学数据集来绘制喷口开放的背景空间概率，条件是在可预见的未来发生事件。分析的重点是重建过去15ka的喷发口位置，包括断层和地表裂缝的分布，作为地壳软弱区的代表。我们的主要目标之一是通过结构化的专家启发来整合火山系统认知不确定性的一些主要来源，从而量化某些重要模型参数的不确定性，并允许评估不同专家权重模型的结果。结果表明，过去的通风口位置是控制通风口打开概率的最重要的信息因素，其次是断层位置，然后是裂缝位置。我们的喷口打开概率图强调了在火山口中东部存在一个相当大的区域，在那里每平方公里新喷口打开的可能性大约是整个火山口基线值的6倍。虽然这些概率值有很大的不确定性，但我们的发现为Campi Flegrei火山口下一次喷发的危险地图提供了合理的基础。
Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.