The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany
The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.09.003
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Schlueter, Elmar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berning, Carl C.;Schlueter, Elmar
现有的跨部门研究认为，公民对激进右翼民粹主义（RRP）政党的偏好主要是由他们认为移民威胁到国家内部群体的福祉所驱动的。然而，这种关系的纵向证据在很大程度上缺失。为了弥补这一差距，在文献中，我们开发了三个相互竞争的假设进行调查：（a）是否感知的群体威胁是暂时之前的RRP党的喜好，（B）是否RRP党的喜好是暂时之前感知的群体威胁，或（c）是否感知的群体威胁和RRP党的喜好之间的关系是双向的。基于荷兰2008-2013年和德国1994-2002年的多波面板数据，我们使用自回归交叉滞后结构方程模型检验了这些假设的优点。结果表明，受威胁的群体利益的看法沉淀，而不是遵循公民的偏好RRP党。这些发现有助于澄清我们的知识的动态结构的RRP党的喜好。(C)2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Existing cross-sectional research considers citizens' preferences for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties to be centrally driven by their perception that immigrants threaten the well-being of the national ingroup. However, longitudinal evidence for this relationship is largely missing. To remedy this gap in the literature, we developed three competing hypotheses to investigate: (a) whether perceived group threat is temporally prior to RRP party preferences, (b) whether RRP party preferences are temporally prior to perceived group threat, or (c) whether the relation between perceived group threat and RRP party preferences is bidirectional. Based on multiwave panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2008-2013 and from Germany spanning the period 1994-2002, we examined the merits of these hypotheses using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. The results show that perceptions of threatened group interests precipitate rather than follow citizens' preferences for RRP parties. These findings help to clarify our knowledge of the dynamic structure underlying RRP party preferences. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.