Risk Prediction Measures for Case-Cohort and Nested Case-Control Designs: An Application to Cardiovascular Disease
Risk Prediction Measures for Case-Cohort and Nested Case-Control Designs: An Application to Cardiovascular Disease
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwr374
复制
发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ingelsson, Erik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ganna, Andrea;Reilly, Marie;Ingelsson, Erik
病例队列和嵌套病例对照设计通常用于从前瞻性队列研究中选择适当的个体子样本。尽管对关联估计量的计算给予了极大的关注，但没有描述正式的方法来估计这两种抽样设计的风险预测措施。使用瑞典双胞胎登记处（2004-2009）的真实数据，作者对未分层和分层（匹配）病例队列和嵌套病例对照亚样本进行了抽样，并将其与完整队列（作为“金标准”）进行了比较。研究了真实生物标志物（高密度脂蛋白胆固醇）和模拟生物标志物（BIO1和BIO2）与心血管疾病、3年心血管疾病个体风险和主要预测指标的相关性。总体而言，分层提高了效率，分层病例队列设计可与匹配的巢式病例对照设计相媲美。除了精细匹配的嵌套病例对照设计不能将匹配变量纳入个体风险估计之外，采用病例队列和嵌套病例对照设计计算的个体风险和预测测度在适当的重新加权后都能得到较好的评估效率。总之，作者已经表明，病例队列和嵌套病例对照设计可以用于研究目的是评估新标记物的预测能力的设置，嵌套病例对照设计的匹配策略可能导致有偏倚的预测测量。
Case-cohort and nested case-control designs are often used to select an appropriate subsample of individuals from prospective cohort studies. Despite the great attention that has been given to the calculation of association estimators, no formal methods have been described for estimating risk prediction measures from these 2 sampling designs. Using real data from the Swedish Twin Registry (2004-2009), the authors sampled unstratified and stratified (matched) case-cohort and nested case-control subsamples and compared them with the full cohort (as "gold standard"). The real biomarker (high density lipoprotein cholesterol) and simulated biomarkers (BIO1 and BIO2) were studied in terms of association with cardiovascular disease, individual risk of cardiovascular disease at 3 years, and main prediction metrics. Overall, stratification improved efficiency, with stratified case-cohort designs being comparable to matched nested case-control designs. Individual risks and prediction measures calculated by using case-cohort and nested case-control designs after appropriate reweighting could be assessed with good efficiency, except for the finely matched nested case-control design, where matching variables could not be included in the individual risk estimation. In conclusion, the authors have shown that case-cohort and nested case-control designs can be used in settings where the research aim is to evaluate the prediction ability of new markers and that matching strategies for nested case-control designs may lead to biased prediction measures.