F 1 EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE WIND PRODUCTION ON THE NORDIC ELECTRICITY MARKET
F 1 EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE WIND PRODUCTION ON THE NORDIC ELECTRICITY MARKET
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F 1 大规模风力发电对北欧电力市场的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Hirvonen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Holttinen;K. Vogstad;A. Botterud;R. Hirvonen
利用具有周时间分辨率的电力市场模型EMPs进行了仿真，以评估大规模风力发电对北欧电力市场的影响。本文提出了两种基本方案，分别参考2000年和2010年的北欧市场区域，并分3个步骤将风能添加到这些系统中。对北欧国家16…46TWh/a风电发电量(占用电量的4…12%)的模拟结果表明，风电取代了大部分凝析煤和石油作为电锅炉的燃料。由于风力发电取代了燃料，二氧化碳排放量减少了680……620克二氧化碳/千瓦时。可以看到输电瓶颈的迹象，特别是对中欧，当风力发电量超过20太瓦时/年时。每增加10太瓦时/年的风力发电量，现货市场平均价格下降约0.2欧分。目前的风力发电系统避免的成本约为2欧分/千瓦时，而2010年的系统在征收二氧化碳税和减少电力盈余的情况下，避免的成本约为3.1欧分/千瓦时。市场的社会经济盈余变化是2.4欧分/千瓦时，对于16…46太瓦时/年的风力发电，即比平均现货价格高出15%(2010年，3.9欧分/千瓦时，比平均现货价格高出30%)。
Simulations with the power market model EMPS with weekly time resolution have been made to assess the effects of large scale wind production to the Nordic electricity market. Two base case scenarios are made, reference for the Nordic market area for years 2000 and 2010, and wind is added to these systems in 3 steps. The results for the simulations with 16...46 TWh/a wind production in Nordic countries (4...12 % of electricity consumption), show that wind power replaces mostly coal condense and oil as fuel for electric boilers. As a result of fuels replaced by wind production a CO2 reduction is achieved, of 680...620 gCO2/kWh. Indications for bottlenecks in transmission can be seen, especially to Central Europe, when the wind production is above 20 TWh/a. Average spot market price drops by roughly 0.2 eurocents per 10 TWh/a wind production added to the system. Avoided costs for wind power production are roughly 2 eurocents/kWh for today’s system and 3.1 eurocents/kWh for 2010 system with CO2 tax and reduced power surplus. Changes in socio-economic surplus for the market is 2.4...2.0 eurocents/kWh for 16...46 TWh/a wind production, i.e.15 % higher than average spot price (for 2010, 3.9 eurocents/kWh, 30 % higher than average spot price).