Analytic Model for Orbital Debris Environmental Management
Analytic Model for Orbital Debris Environmental Management
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轨道碎片环境管理分析模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Talent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Talent
建立了表示轨道上物体数量时间变化率的微分方程。这一方法被称为“箱中粒子”模型，可用微分方程式的系数确定近地轨道环境的物理参数，从而对轨道碎片源和汇进行检查。PIB方程至少有两个用途：1)通过简单的系数评估来测试LEO环境针对失控增长的稳定性，以及2)作为环境数值模型的基础。相对于这两种用途中的前一种用途，已经确定，目前的环境略有不稳定，可能会出现灾难性的增长--这种情况可以通过采用积极的减少碎片技术来改善。相对于第二种用途，在PIB模型的最简单实施下--单个环境框中的单个“等效”粒子物种--轨道上的粒子数量将继续增加，直到大约公元2250至2350年，总数达到500,000至2,000,000。该模型可以扩展到多层系统中多个物种的更现实(复杂)情况。
A differential equation expressing the time rate of change of the number of objects on orbit has been developed. This approach, referred to as the "particles-in-a-box" (PIB) model, allows for the examination of orbital debris sources and sinks in a fashion that identifies the physical parameters of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment with the coefficients of the differential equation. The PIB equation has at least two uses: 1) to test the stability of the LEO environment against runaway growth via a simple evaluation of the coefficients, and 2) as the basis for a numerical model of the environment. It has been determined, relative to the first of these two uses, that the present environment is slightly unstable to catastrophic growth—a condition that could be improved by the employment of active debris reduction techniques. Relative to the second of these uses, and under the simplest implementation of the PIB model—a single "equivalent" particle species in a single environmental box—the number of particles on orbit will continue to increase until approximately 2250 to 2350 A.D., reaching totals of 500,000 to 2,000,000. The model is expandable to the more realistic (complex) case of multiple species in a multiple-tier system.