Demography and population trends of the largest population of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins
Demography and population trends of the largest population of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins
复制标题
印度太平洋座头海豚最大种群的人口统计和种群趋势
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2012.01.004
复制
发表时间：
2012-03-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Wu, Yuping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Shiang-Lin;Karczmarski, Leszek;Wu, Yuping
人口统计学参数的估计和种群生存能力的预测模型为物种和种群的知情管理提供了基线证据。由于基本数据往往有限，涉及鲸目动物的此类方法的例子很少，这常常损害养护的有效性。在这项研究中，我们估计人口参数的印度太平洋座头豚，苏萨中国，从珠江口（PRE），中国，基于生命表构建的搁浅动物的数据。我们应用当前的丰度估计，并使用基于个人的莱斯利矩阵模型预测人口波动的因素，在参数的不确定性和人口统计的随机性。我们的估计表明，人口每年持续下降2.46%，尽管变化很大。如果估计的下降率保持不变，预计目前种群的74.27%将在三代后消失，57.60%的模型模拟符合标准A3下的濒危分类标准，应用IUCN红色名录类别和标准3.1版。然而，由于PRE是中国和世界上经济增长最快的地区之一，估计的下降速度可能在不久的将来进一步加快，预计灭绝的风险可能会更高。有效的保护措施是非常必要的，并应被视为针对PRE和周围地区的管理计划中的一个紧迫事项。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Estimates of demographic parameters and predictive modeling of population viability furnish baseline evidence for informed management of species and populations. There are very few examples of such approaches involving cetaceans due to often limited fundamental data, which frequently impairs the effectiveness of conservation. In this study, we estimate demographic parameters for the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, from the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China, based on a life-table constructed using data from stranded animals. We apply current abundance estimates and use an individual-based Leslie-matrix model to predict the population fluctuation by factoring in parameter uncertainty and demographic stochasticity. Our estimates indicate a continuous rate of population decline of 2.46% per annum, albeit with considerable variation. If the estimated rate of decline remains constant, 74.27% of the current population is projected to be lost after three generations and 57.60% of model simulations meet the criteria for classification as endangered under Criterion A3, applying IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria Version 3.1. However, as PRE is among the fastest economically growing regions of China and the world, the estimated rate of decline may further accelerate in a near future and the projected risk of extinction may be higher. Effective conservation measures are much needed and should be seen as a matter of urgency in management plans targeting PRE and environs. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.