Japan’s Monetary Policy: A Literature Review and Empirical Assessment
Japan’s Monetary Policy: A Literature Review and Empirical Assessment
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日本货币政策：文献回顾与实证评估
DOI：
10.1007/s42001-021-00113-z
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Takashi Kamihigashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Masahiko Shibamoto;Wataru Takahashi;Takashi Kamihigashi
本研究以短期利率为操作目标的政策为中心，对日本银行的货币政策进行了回顾和评价。通过对影响日本银行政策的货币政策实证研究的回顾，我们发现，这些研究主要集中在（1）银行体系和利率机制、（2）金融自由化和货币总量、（3）实现最终目标的系统性反应、（4）确定某些证据如何成为政策判断和与公众沟通的材料。我们在结构向量自回归模型的框架下对货币政策的因果效果进行了实证分析，结果证明了20世纪80年代以后日本的货币政策对金融市场和宏观经济产生了重大影响。我们的反事实模拟证实，中央银行应该不断改变其政策立场，以实现宏观经济稳定。在低利率环境下，即使是小幅度的政策降息，也会对经济复苏做出重大贡献。
This study reviews and assesses the monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), focusing on policies that employ short-term interest rates as the operational target. Our review of empirical studies on monetary policy that influenced the BOJ’s policy reveals that they focused on (1) banking system and interest rate mechanisms, (2) financial deregulation and monetary aggregates, (3) the systematic reaction regarding the achievement of the ultimate goal, and (4) confirming how certain evidence serves as material for policy judgments and communication with the public. Our empirical results on the causal effect of monetary policy in the framework of a structural vector autoregressive model attest to the significant impact of Japan’s monetary policy on the financial market and macroeconomy from the 1980s onward. Our counterfactual simulations affirm that the central bank should consistently shift its policy stance to achieve macroeconomic stability. Even small policy rate cuts in a low-interest-rate environment make significant contributions to economic recovery.