Contingency Probability Estimation for Risk-Based Planning Studies Using NERC's Outage Data and Standard TPL-001-4
Contingency Probability Estimation for Risk-Based Planning Studies Using NERC's Outage Data and Standard TPL-001-4
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使用 NERC 的停电数据和标准 TPL-001-4 进行基于风险的规划研究的意外概率估计
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Jack Norris
中科院分区：
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作者：
Yanda Jiang;Anam Kalair;J. McCalley;Parag Mitra;A. Gaikwad;D. Pratt;Jack Norris
本文提出了北美电力可靠性公司（NERC）标准TPL-001-4规定的事故概率P1-P7的计算方法。这些概率对于执行基于行业的概率规划潮流研究是有用的。给出了表征TPL突发类型P1-P7的马尔可夫模型，并基于NERC数据收集系统GADS、GADS- wind、TADS和MIDAS描述了估计模型参数所需的数据处理。描述了一个称为偶然性估计工具（CPET）的软件系统，它封装了这些模型、过程和数据。
This paper develops a method for computing probabilities of contingencies P1-P7 specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Standard TPL-001-4. These probabilities are useful for performing industry-based probabilistic planning power flow studies. Markov models are provided that characterize TPL contingency types P1-P7, and data processing necessary to estimate model parameters is described based on NERC data collection systems GADS, GADS-Wind, TADS, and MIDAS. A software system called Contingency Probability Estimation Tool (CPET) is described that encapsulates these models, processes, and data.