Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia
Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2021.100309
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发表时间：
2021-02
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
N. Mori;T. Takemi;Y. Tachikawa;H. Tatano;T. Shimura;Tomohiro Tanaka;Toshimi Fujimi;Yukari Osakada;A. Webb;E. Nakakita
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文献类型：
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作者：
N. Mori;T. Takemi;Y. Tachikawa;H. Tatano;T. Shimura;Tomohiro Tanaka;Toshimi Fujimi;Yukari Osakada;A. Webb;E. Nakakita
全球变暖导致的气候变化预计将对热带气旋、白雨、降水和季节性风暴等现象产生重大影响。东亚地区的许多自然灾害是由台风活动驱动的，其相关危害对局地尺度特征很敏感。因此，为了正确评估气候变化对该地区自然灾害的影响，在局部尺度上对TC活动（和其他现象）进行数值模拟至关重要。此外，预测许多与tc相关的灾害的未来变化和/或其潜在的经济影响可能具有挑战性，因为它们在任何一个特定地区的发生频率都很低。考虑到这些观点，日本成立了一个合作研究项目，以局地尺度和大集合数值实验为基础，预测日本和东亚自然灾害的长期变化。本文回顾了该项目最近的气候变化影响评估（以英文和日文撰写），并总结了未来降水、河流洪水和沿海灾害的预测变化及其相关的经济影响。
Climate change due to global warming is expected to have major impacts on phenomena such as tropical cyclones (TCs), Baiu, precipitation, and seasonal storms. Many natural disasters in East Asia are driven by TC (typhoon) activity in particular and their associated hazards are sensitive to local-scale characteristics. As such, it is critically important to numerically simulate TC activity (and other phenomenon) on local scales in order to properly assess climate change impacts on natural hazards in the region. In addition, projecting future changes of many TC-related hazards and/or their potential economic impacts can be challenging due to their low occurrence frequencies in any one particular area. With these views in mind, a collaborative research program was formed in Japan to project long-term changes in natural hazards in Japan and East Asia based on local-scale and large-ensemble numerical experiments. This paper reviews recent climate change impact assessments (written in both English and Japanese) from the program and summarizes the projected future changes in precipitation, river flooding, and coastal hazards, and their associated economic impacts.