A Regional Climatography of West Nile, Uganda, to Support Human Plague Modeling
A Regional Climatography of West Nile, Uganda, to Support Human Plague Modeling
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乌干达西尼罗河区域气候学支持人类鼠疫模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
R. Eisen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Monaghan;Katherine Macmillan;S. Moore;S. Moore;P. Mead;M. Hayden;R. Eisen
乌干达西北部的西尼罗河地区是人类鼠疫的聚集地，人类鼠疫在北方秋季达到高峰，并通过啮齿动物宿主上的跳蚤传播。美国疾病控制和预防中心正在与国家大气研究中心合作，定量解决该地区气候和人类瘟疫之间的联系。这份文件的目的是增进对维持地方性流行病循环和触发流行病循环所需的气候条件的了解，并最终将有限的监测、预防和控制资源作为目标。将动力-统计混合降尺度技术应用于天气研究和预报模式(WRF)的模拟，以生成一个多年的2公里气候数据集，用于模拟西尼罗河地区的鼠疫。由此产生的数据集解决了西尼罗河温度、湿度和降雨量相对于卫星和现场记录的空间变异性和年周期。地形对冷杉产生影响。
AbstractThe West Nile region in northwestern Uganda is a focal point for human plague, which peaks in boreal autumn and is spread by fleas that travel on rodent hosts. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is collaborating with the National Center for Atmospheric Research to quantitatively address the linkages between climate and human plague in this region. The aim of this paper is to advance knowledge of the climatic conditions required to maintain enzootic cycles and to trigger epizootic cycles and ultimately to target limited surveillance, prevention, and control resources. A hybrid dynamical–statistical downscaling technique was applied to simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to generate a multiyear 2-km climate dataset for modeling plague in the West Nile region. The resulting dataset resolves the spatial variability and annual cycle of temperature, humidity, and rainfall in West Nile relative to satellite-based and in situ records. Topography exerts a firs...