Analysis of heat stress in UK dairy cattle and impact on milk yields
Analysis of heat stress in UK dairy cattle and impact on milk yields
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064006
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Parker, David E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dunn, Robert J. H.;Mead, Naomi E.;Parker, David E.
正如人类在高温高湿时期会遭受热应激一样，奶牛也是如此。我们利用温度-湿度指数（THI）研究了英国过去的热浪对奶牛群热应激的影响。日常气象观测得出的每日 THI 数据显示，在夏季，过去 40 年来每个站点平均每年有 1 天 THI 超过奶牛出现轻度热应激的阈值。然而，在 2003 年和 2006 年的热浪期间，英格兰中部地区、南部和东部地区平均有 5 天超过这一阈值。大多数奶牛都在该国西部和北部，因此没有经历最严重的高温。英格兰西南部的牛奶产量数据显示，2003 年和 2006 年期间，一些牛群的产量有所下降。我们使用由 11 个成员组成的区域气候模型集合以及 UKCP09 的 A1B 情景来调查未来可能发生的天数变化，超过发生轻度热应激的 THI 阈值。到本世纪末，英格兰南部地区 THI 超过此阈值的天数可能会增加到 yr(-1) 超过 20 天。
Much as humans suffer from heat-stress during periods of high temperature and humidity, so do dairy cattle. Using a temperature-humidity index (THI), we investigate the effect of past heatwaves in the UK on heat-stress in dairy herds. Daily THI data derived from routine meteorological observations show that during the summer, there has been an average of typically 1 day per year per station over the past 40 years when the THI has exceeded the threshold for the onset of mild heat-stress in dairy cattle. However, during the heatwaves of 2003 and 2006, this threshold was exceeded on typically 5 days on average in the Midlands, south and east of England. Most dairy cattle are in the west and north of the country and so did not experience the severest heat. Milk yield data in the south-west of England show that a few herds experienced decreases in yields during 2003 and 2006. We used the 11-member regional climate model ensemble with the A1B scenario from UKCP09 to investigate the possible future change in days exceeding the THI threshold for the onset of mild heat-stress. The number of days where the THI exceeds this threshold could increase to over 20 days yr(-1) in southern parts of England by the end of the century.