Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs
Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs
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DOI：
10.2118/163870-ms
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发表时间：
2012-10
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Joshi;W. J. Lee
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文献类型：
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作者：
K. Joshi;W. J. Lee
页岩气藏各种确定性预测技术的比较，重点是Duong方法。(2012年8月)Krunal Jaykant Joshi，B.S.，德克萨斯A&M大学学院站咨询委员会联席主席John Lee博士Duane McVay博士准确预测页岩气储层的产量在行业中有着巨大的需求。方法有体积法、递减曲线分析法、解析模拟法和数值模拟法。这些方法各有利弊，但只有DCA技术才能利用现成的生产数据快速、准确地进行预测。工业上使用的DCA方法，如ARPS方法，最初是针对边界控制流(BDF)井而开发的，但在页岩油藏中已经观察到了这种方法，其主要流型是瞬变流型。因此，开发新的模型来匹配和预测瞬变流型势在必行。SEDM/SEPD模型、Duong模型和递减率最小的ARPS模型都是能够匹配和预测紧随边界流的不稳定流井的模型。我对Duong模型进行了修正，使之比原来的模型预测得更好。我还观察到Duong模型的某些变化，事实证明，对于大多数井情况和流态来说，Duong模型是一个健壮的模型。改装后的Duong已被证明是有效的
Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs With Emphasis on the Duong Method. (August 2012) Krunal Jaykant Joshi, B.S., Texas A&M University at College Station Co-Chairs of Advisory Committee, Dr. John Lee Dr. Duane McVay There is a huge demand in the industry to forecast production in shale gas reservoirs accurately. There are many methods including volumetric, Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), analytical simulation and numerical simulation. Each one of these methods has its advantages and disadvantages, but only the DCA technique can use readily available production data to forecast rapidly and to an extent accurately. The DCA methods in use in the industry such as the Arps method had originally been developed for Boundary dominated flow (BDF) wells but it has been observed in shale reservoirs the predominant flow regime is transient flow. Therefore it was imperative to develop newer models to match and forecast transient flow regimes. The SEDM/SEPD, the Duong model and the Arps with a minimum decline rate are models that have the ability to match and forecast wells with transient flow followed by boundary flow. I have revised the Duong model to forecast better than the original model. I have also observed a certain variation of the Duong model proves to be a robust model for most of the well cases and flow regimes. The modified Duong has been shown to work