Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves
Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2007.0464
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发表时间：
2007-07-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Scotland, Robert W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bebber, Daniel P.;Marriott, Francis H. C.;Scotland, Robert W.
估计一个分类群中现存物种总数的一种常用方法是从已知物种描述的时间模式中推断出来的。对这个问题提供了一种正式的统计方法。该方法被应用于鸟类、蚂蚁、苔藓、石松、单生植物（蕨类和马尾植物）、裸子植物以及新大陆禾草和英国开花植物的许多全球数据集。总的来说，我们的结果表明，除非一个群体的清单接近完整，否则估计物种总数会有很大的误差。发现过程中不可预测的变化对物种积累曲线的强烈影响使这些数据在估计物种总数时不可靠。
A common approach to estimating the total number of extant species in a taxonomic group is to extrapolate from the temporal pattern of known species descriptions. A formal statistical approach to this problem is provided. The approach is applied to a number of global datasets for birds, ants, mosses, lycophytes, monilophytes (ferns and horsetails), gymnosperms and also to New World grasses and UK flowering plants. Overall, our results suggest that unless the inventory of a group is nearly complete, estimating the total number of species is associated with very large margins of error. The strong influence of unpredictable variations in the discovery process on species accumulation curves makes these data unreliable in estimating total species numbers.