The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun
The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun
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2008-2009 年危机期间国际贸易的崩溃：寻找铁证
DOI：
10.3386/w16006
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Tesar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Levchenko;Logan Lewis;L. Tesar
最近这次经济衰退最引人注目的一个方面是国际贸易的崩溃。本文使用了美国进出口的季度和月度分类数据，以揭示这种崩溃的解剖结构。我们发现，最近贸易相对于整体经济活动的减少幅度远远大于之前的经济衰退。关于国内吸收和进口的数量和价格的信息显示，与简单的进口需求关系所预测的相比，进口缺口超过50%。在按6位数NAICS水平分类的进出口样本中，我们发现，作为中间投入的部门在进口和出口方面都经历了明显更高的百分比下降。我们还发现了对构成效应的支持：国内产出下降幅度较大的行业，其贸易下降幅度也较大。相比之下，我们没有发现贸易信贷在最近的贸易崩溃中起作用的假设得到支持。
One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated quarterly and monthly data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a more than 50% shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, we find that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. We also find support for compositional effects: sectors with larger reductions in domestic output had larger drops in trade. By contrast, we find no support for the hypothesis that trade credit played a role in the recent trade collapse.