Climate Change and Rural Out-migration in Himalaya
Climate Change and Rural Out-migration in Himalaya
复制标题
喜马拉雅地区的气候变化和农村人口外流
DOI：
10.1515/cass-2015-0002
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bhagwati Joshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Tiwari;Bhagwati Joshi
摘要本文探讨了气候变化与喜马拉雅农村外迁之间的联系。自给自足农业是该区域粮食和农村生计的主要来源，尽管可耕地供应严重有限，作物生产力很低。自给自足经济的限制迫使很大比例的成年男性人口离开山区寻求生计和就业。不断变化的气候条件给喜马拉雅的农业和生计系统带来了压力，因为年平均气温上升，冰川和雪融化，降水模式改变和水文中断，以及更频繁和更严重的极端天气事件。近十年来，降雨量和降雨日数分别下降了52%和34%，强降雨和干旱的发生率有所上升。这些变化扰乱了水文系统，减少了可用水，导致作物频繁歉收，灌溉潜力下降(25%)，农业生产力下降(26%)，传统农村部门失去农村生计(34%)。这些压力加剧了农村人口外流的趋势，特别是2001至2013年间总体增长了2536%。由于山区农业女性化和资源开发进程女性化，男青年外流趋势日益严重，影响了农村妇女的生活质量。
Abstract This paper examines linkages between climate change and rural out-migration in Himalaya. Subsistence agriculture constitutes the main source of food and rural livelihoods in the region although the availability of arable land is severely limited and crop productivity is low. The constraints of the subsistence economy compel a large proportion of the adult male population to outmigrate from the mountain region in search of livelihoods and employment. Changing climatic conditions have stressed Himalayan agricultural and livelihood systems through higher mean annual temperatures and melting of glaciers and snow, altered precipitation patterns and hydrological disruptions, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events. The amount of rainfall events and number of rainy days has declined respectively by 52% and 34% during the last ten years and the incidence of high intensity rainfall and droughts have increased. These changes have disrupted the hydrological systems and reduced the availability of water resulting in frequent crop failures, declines in irrigation potential (25%), decreased agricultural productivity (26%), and loss of rural livelihoods (34%) in traditional rural sectors. These pressures have contributed to increasing trends of rural out-migration, specifically an overall increase of 2536% between 2001 and 2013. The increasing trend of outmigration among male youth has affected the quality of life of rural women through feminization of mountain agriculture and resource development processes.