Delayed Reporting of Faults in Warranty Claims
Delayed Reporting of Faults in Warranty Claims
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DOI：
10.1109/tr.2019.2957503
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Richard Arnold;S. Chukova;Y. Hayakawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Richard Arnold;S. Chukova;Y. Hayakawa
在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个模型延迟报告的故障：多个非致命的故障积累，然后同时报告和修复。报告过程被建模为一个随机过程依赖于潜在的随机过程产生的故障。我们推导出的联合分布的报告时间和数量的报告故障，给出一般的结果和特定的泊松过程所产生的故障的结果。我们调查了一些扩展的基本模型，包括多个故障类型（包括无形的和致命的故障），预防性维护，和客户急于。我们展示了如何从模型中进行模拟，并在模拟数据集和汽车制造商保修索赔的真实的数据集中实现最大似然参数估计。
In this article, we present a model for delayed reporting of faults: multiple nonfatal faults are accumulated and then simultaneously reported and repaired. The reporting process is modeled as a stochastic process dependent on the underlying stochastic process generating the faults. We derive the joint distribution of the reporting times and numbers of reported faults, giving general results and results specific to faults generated by a Poisson process. We investigate a number of extensions to the basic model, including multiple fault types (including invisible and fatal faults), preventative maintenance, and customer rush. We show how to simulate from the model and implement maximum likelihood parameter estimation in a simulated dataset and a real dataset of warranty claims from a car manufacturer.