Integrated assessment of biological invasions
Integrated assessment of biological invasions
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DOI：
10.1890/13-0776.1
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Lawler, Joshua J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ibanez, Ines;Diez, Jeffrey M.;Lawler, Joshua J.
作为入侵对世界各地生态系统的生态和经济影响的主要见证者，生态学家试图提供相关的科学，向管理者提供有关他们感兴趣的地区特定生物入侵的可能性的信息(S)。然而，能够为这类预测提供信息的各种文献很少被整合起来这样做，而且，现有数据的多样性使综合和定量预测变得复杂。在这里，我们提供了一套分析工具，用于综合不同级别的分布和/或人口数据，以产生对入侵潜力的有意义的评估，从而指导正在进行的入侵的多个阶段的管理，从扩散到殖民再到扩散。我们以三个众所周知的入侵物种-藤本植物、海洋贻贝和淡水小龙虾在当前和预测的未来气候条件下的案例研究为例，说明数据合成和数据模型同化方法的实用性。综合评估的结果反映了入侵过程的复杂性，并表明最相关的气候变量可以具有不同的影响，或者在不同的生境类型中以不同的强度发挥作用。因此，对于所研究的两个物种来说，气候趋势将增加某些栖息地入侵的可能性，并降低其他栖息地的入侵可能性。我们的结果确定并量化了入侵的瓶颈和机会窗口，主要与人类对景观的使用或对资源流动的干扰有关。我们描述的方法具有增强模型现实性、解释性洞察力和预测能力的高潜力，产生的信息可以为管理决策提供信息，并针对广泛的生物入侵优化特定阶段的预防和控制努力。
As the main witnesses of the ecological and economic impacts of invasions on ecosystems around the world, ecologists seek to provide the relevant science that informs managers about the potential for invasion of specific organisms in their region(s) of interest. Yet, the assorted literature that could inform such forecasts is rarely integrated to do so, and further, the diverse nature of the data available complicates synthesis and quantitative prediction. Here we present a set of analytical tools for synthesizing different levels of distributional and/or demographic data to produce meaningful assessments of invasion potential that can guide management at multiple phases of ongoing invasions, from dispersal to colonization to proliferation. We illustrate the utility of data-synthesis and data-model assimilation approaches with case studies of three well-known invasive speciesa vine, a marine mussel, and a freshwater crayfishunder current and projected future climatic conditions. Results from the integrated assessments reflect the complexity of the invasion process and show that the most relevant climatic variables can have contrasting effects or operate at different intensities across habitat types. As a consequence, for two of the study species climate trends will increase the likelihood of invasion in some habitats and decrease it in others. Our results identified and quantified both bottlenecks and windows of opportunity for invasion, mainly related to the role of human uses of the landscape or to disruption of the flow of resources. The approach we describe has a high potential to enhance model realism, explanatory insight, and predictive capability, generating information that can inform management decisions and optimize phase-specific prevention and control efforts for a wide range of biological invasions.