Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
复制标题
工业时代的海洋和大陆变暖提前开始
DOI：
10.1038/nature19082
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发表时间：
2016-08-25
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
von Gunten, Lucien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abram, Nerilie J.;McGregor, Helen V.;von Gunten, Lucien
工业时代整个大陆和海洋变暖的演变为未来气候变化提供了一个背景，对于确定气候敏感性和控制区域变暖的过程非常重要。在这里，我们使用公元1500年后的古气候记录来表明，热带海洋的持续变暖始于19世纪中叶，几乎与北半球大陆变暖同步。古气候记录和模式模拟中持续显著变暖的早期开始表明，工业时代变暖的温室强迫早在19世纪中期就开始了，其中包括赤道海洋响应机制的增强。南半球变暖的发展在重建中被延迟，但这种明显的延迟在气候模拟中没有重现。我们的研究结果表明，仪器记录太短，无法全面评估人为气候变化，而且在一些地区，大约180年的工业时代变暖已经导致地表温度高于工业前的值，即使将自然变率考虑在内。
The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.