Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-2021-397
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Melissa Wood;I. Haigh;Quan Le;H. Nguyen;Hoang Tran;S. Darby;R. Marsh;N. Skliris;J. Hirschi;R. Nicholls;N. Bloemendaal
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文献类型：
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作者：
Melissa Wood;I. Haigh;Quan Le;H. Nguyen;Hoang Tran;S. Darby;R. Marsh;N. Skliris;J. Hirschi;R. Nicholls;N. Bloemendaal
抽象。至关重要的是，必须对极端海平面造成的风险进行可靠的估计，特别是在热带地区，因为在这些地区，飓风可能会产生大规模风暴潮，而观测的时间和空间都非常有限，无法提供可靠的分析。为了解决南海地区的这一局限性，我们强制使用一个新的综合数据库，该数据库代表了过去/现在和未来1万年的热带气旋活动，以调查气候变化对风暴潮（±潮汐）造成的极端海平面的影响。我们发现，随着更强和更多的热带气旋可能通过该地区在未来30年，空间范围和风暴潮灾害的严重程度增加。虽然该地区的极端风暴潮事件在未来通常会更频繁地发生，但预计越南和中国海岸线周围的更大风暴潮将在区域范围内扩大这种危险。这威胁到红河三角洲和湄公河三角洲等地势低洼、人口稠密的地区，而柬埔寨和泰国部分海岸线则面临着以前从未见过的风暴潮危险。这些未来的灾害强烈表明，应审查这些地区的沿海洪水管理和适应措施，以确定其对未来极端海平面的适应能力。
Abstract. It is vital to robustly estimate the risks posed by extreme sea levels, especially in tropical regions where cyclones can generate large storm surges and observations are too limited in time and space to deliver reliable analyses. To address this limitation for the South China Sea region, we force a hydrodynamic model with a new synthetic database representing 10,000 years of past/present and future tropical cyclone activity, to investigate climate change impacts on extreme sea levels forced by storm surges (± tides). We show that, as stronger and more numerous tropical cyclones likely pass through this region over the next 30 years, both the spatial extent and severity of storm surge hazard increases. While extreme storm surge events in this location become generally a more frequent occurrence in the future, larger storm surges around Vietnam and China coastlines are projected to regionally amplify this hazard. This threatens low-lying, densely-populated areas such as the Red and Mekong River deltas, while sections of the Cambodian and Thai coastline face previously unseen storm surge hazards. These future hazards strongly signal that coastal flood management and adaptation in these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme sea levels.