The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios
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纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫冲突：当前趋势和未来情景
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发表时间：
2011
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Ismailzade
中科院分区：
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作者：
F. Ismailzade
在阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚庆祝脱离苏联独立20周年之际，两国都发现自己陷入了长达数十年的纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫领土争端。纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫是国际公认的阿塞拜疆领土，主要居住着亚美尼亚族人。迄今为止，欧安组织明斯克小组的调解努力未能取得突破。两国的政治领导人都不愿意也不能做出痛苦的让步，担心国内舆论和海外侨民的反对。随着该地区军备竞赛的加速，在不久的将来实现和平的希望渺茫。亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆即将举行的总统和议会选举将没有多少政治回旋的余地。同时，两国之间日益增长的挫折感可能导致战争的爆发，从而使该地区的社会经济发展和能源项目面临巨大风险。
As Azerbaijan and Armenia celebrate the 20th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union, both countries find themselves trapped in a decades-long territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. Mediation efforts by the OSCE’s Minsk Group have failed to produce a breakthrough so far. The political leadership of both countries is unwilling and unable to make painful concessions, fearing opposition from domestic public opinion and the Diaspora abroad. As the arms race in the region accelerates, there is little hope for peace in the near future. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan will leave little room for political maneuvre. Meanwhile, growing frustration among both nations might lead to the outbreak of war and thus put the socio-economic development of the region and energy projects at great risk.