Regional Climate Projections
Regional Climate Projections
复制标题
区域气候预测
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5_10
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Vautard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Vautard
在设计今后几十年直至世纪中期的气候变化适应和减缓措施时，决策者和工业界必须依靠适当规模的气候信息来评估气候变化造成的影响、脆弱性和风险。因此，关于气候及其影响的定量信息必须可靠。还必须提供关于气候变化影响的可靠量化信息。这包括不确定性界限的估计。在科学界目前的知识、技术和结构状况下，气候变化影响研究是通过一套模型实现的：全球地球系统模型，一般分辨率较低，（100-300公里），分辨率更高的区域有限区域气候模式（10-50公里），其边界条件来自全球模型和影响模型，计算天气、海洋和地球化学循环的变化如何影响要调整的系统。
When designing adaptation and mitigation measures of climate change for the coming decades and up to the middle of the century, policymakers and industries must rely upon climate information that is at an appropriate scale to evaluate impacts, vulnerabilities and risks due to changes in climate. It is, therefore, essential that the quantitative information on the climate and its impacts is reliable. Reliable quantitative information about climate change impacts must also be available. This includes estimations of uncertainty bounds. In the current state of knowledge, technology and structure of scientific communities, climate change impact studies are achieved from a suite of models: global earth system models, with a generally low-resolution (100–300 km), regional limited-area climate models with a higher resolution (10–50 km), which take their boundary conditions from global models and impact models calculating how changes in weather, ocean and biogeochemical cycles affect the system to be adapted.