The Effect of An Emergency Evacuation on the Spread of COVID19
The Effect of An Emergency Evacuation on the Spread of COVID19
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DOI：
10.3389/fphy.2020.631264
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发表时间：
2021-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Butail;M. Porfiri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Butail;M. Porfiri
在紧急疏散中，人们几乎总是靠得很近，因为他们很快就会离开受到潜在威胁的建筑环境。对于新冠病毒，这种情况又带来了另一个挑战：无意中接触感染者。为了评估紧急疏散的流行病学后果，我们扩展了流行的行人动态模型，以在正常出口期间实现社交距离，并分析可能通过呼吸道飞沫和气溶胶传播的影响。计算机模拟指出了一个令人不安的结果，即感染的风险可能会超过快速退出的好处。
In an emergency evacuation, people almost always come in close proximity as they quickly leave a built environment under a potential threat. With COVID19, this situation presents yet another challenge: that of getting unintentionally exposed to an infected individual. To assess the epidemiological consequences of an emergency evacuation, we expanded a popular pedestrian dynamic model to enable social distancing during a normal exit and analyze the effect of possible transmission through respiratory droplets and aerosol. Computer simulations point to a troubling outcome, whereby the benefits of a quick exit could be outweighed by the risk of infection.