Climate change may cause distribution area loss for tree species in southern China
Climate change may cause distribution area loss for tree species in southern China
复制标题
气候变化可能导致中国南方树种分布面积减少
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120134
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Xin Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yanlong Guo;Zefang Zhao;Fuxin Zhu;Xin Li
气候变化将导致树种的范围转移，这将给未来的森林管理、利用和保护带来挑战;因此，值得更多关注，特别是在区域范围内。在此，我们选择了56个常见的栽培树种在中国南方，并采用了一个全面的栖息地适宜性模型，分析在基线和不同的未来气候变化情景下，这些物种的潜在种植面积的变化。结果表明，气候变量的变化，特别是平均气温日较差大于±0.25 °C的变化，将导致我国南方大部分树种分布面积的减少。随着预计的温度上升，栖息地丧失的物种数量和分布区丧失率将显著增加。在最强烈的变暖情景下，22个树种的潜在分布面积将比基线条件下减少50%以上。此外，温度升高预计将导致研究区域物种多样性的丧失。这一现象将导致木材缺口增加、环境退化和外来物种入侵的风险。在全球变暖的背景下，中国南方的山区可能为树种提供避难所。在未来的植树造林和森林经营战略中，应充分考虑树种的范围转移和分布面积损失。
Climate change will cause a range shift in tree species, which will create challenges for forest management, utilization and preservation in the future; hence, it is worthy of more attention, especially at the regional scale. Here, we selected 56 common cultured tree species in southern China and employed a comprehensive habitat suitability model to analyse the changes in the potential planting areas of these species at baseline and in different future climate change scenarios. The results indicated that climatic variable changes, especially a change in the mean diurnal temperature range greater than ±0.25 °C, will cause a decrease in the distribution area of most tree species in southern China. With the projected temperature rise, the number of species with habitat loss and the rate of distribution area loss will increase significantly. In the most intense warming scenarios, 22 tree species will lose more than 50% of their potential distribution area compared with that in the baseline condition. Additionally, increasing temperatures are expected to cause species diversity loss in the study area. This phenomenon will generate an increase in wood gaps, environmental degradation and the risk of alien species invasion. Mountainous areas in southern China may provide a refuge for tree species in the context of global warming. In future planting initiatives and forest management strategies, the range shifts and distribution area loss for tree species should be fully considered.