The Power and the Pitfalls of Large-scale, Unreplicated Natural Experiments
The Power and the Pitfalls of Large-scale, Unreplicated Natural Experiments
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DOI：
10.1007/s10021-016-0028-5
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Meeuwig, Jessica J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barley, Shanta C.;Meeuwig, Jessica J.
大规模、不可复制的自然实验（LUNE）具有独特的能力，可以在生态现实的尺度上检验假设，并为宇宙学、进化和地质学提供了强大的见解。然而，LUNE在生态学领域相对罕见，并且由于缺乏复制而继续遇到阻力。然而，在绝大多数情况下，由于实际和道德原因，大规模实验无法复制。在这里，我们提出的情况下，LUNE有不成比例的保护政策的积极影响，是一个关键的下一步外推我们的理解生态过程从小规模的实验到相关的规模，特别是在当前的“复制危机”影响许多科学的背景下。在主流生态学中更多地纳入LUNE将有助于人类解决全球问题，因为人类在未来几十年内加速了地球的转型。
Large-scale, unreplicated natural experiments (LUNEs) have a unique power to test hypotheses at ecologically realistic scales and have delivered insights of great power into cosmology, evolution and geology. Yet, LUNEs are relatively rare in the field of ecology and continue to meet resistance due to their lack of replication. However, in the vast majority of cases, large-scale experiments cannot be replicated for practical and ethical reasons. Here, we make the case that LUNEs have had a disproportionately positive effect on conservation policy and are a crucial next step in the extrapolation of our understanding of ecological processes from small-scale experiments to relevant scales, particularly in the context of the current "replication crisis" affecting many sciences. Greater inclusion of LUNEs in mainstream ecology will help humanity to solve global problems as human transformation of the planet accelerates in coming decades.