Power sector analysis of the BBIN sub‐region with a spatially disaggregated dynamic power generation mix model
Power sector analysis of the BBIN sub‐region with a spatially disaggregated dynamic power generation mix model
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DOI：
10.1002/tee.23234
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发表时间：
2020-09
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Khem Gyanwali;Ryoichi Komiyama;Y. Fujii
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Khem Gyanwali;Ryoichi Komiyama;Y. Fujii
本研究评估了BBIN（孟加拉国，不丹，印度和尼泊尔）次区域的电力部门的最佳扩张，详细分析了不均匀分布的资源和电力需求，通过开发多区域动态电力部门优化模型，其特征是27个节点，45条燃料运输线路和63条输电线路。本文开发的情景评估了2 °C巴黎协议对煤炭和天然气等本土资源的生产，运输和消费，可再生能源和核能在发电组合中的份额，以及通过扩大跨境输电线路利用巨大的未开发水力资源的影响。模拟结果表明，在碳排放管制情景下，水电、风能、核能和光伏发电将成为主导能源，从而降低煤炭的当前份额。在核限制情景中，光伏需求超过了其在大多数节点上的估计商业可开发潜力。扩大跨境输电能力将是开发尚未开发的水电资源的有效途径，以便孟加拉国和印度能够从不丹和尼泊尔进口电力。尽管未来煤炭需求略有增加，但在所采用的排放水平下，燃料网络的容量扩张并不经济。© 2020日本电气工程师协会。出版社：Wiley Periodicals LLC
This study evaluates the optimal expansion of the electricity sector of the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal) sub‐region with a detailed analysis of unevenly distributed resources and electricity demand, by developing a multi‐regional dynamic power sector optimization model, characterized by 27 nodes, 45 fuel transport lines, and 63 transmission lines in hourly temporal resolution. Scenarios developed in this paper assess the impact of 2 °C Paris agreement on production, transportation, and consumption of indigenous resources like coal and gas, the share of renewables and nuclear in the power generation mix, the utilization of huge untapped hydro resources through an expansion of cross‐border transmission lines. The simulation results show that hydro, wind, nuclear, and PV will be the dominant power sources, thus reducing the current share of coal, under carbon regulation scenario. The requirements of PV exceed its estimated commercially exploitable potential in most of the nodes in the nuclear‐restricted scenario. Expanding cross‐border transmission capacity will be an effective way to exploit untapped hydro resources so that Bangladesh and India can import power from Bhutan and Nepal. Although there is a slight increase in coal demand in the future, capacity expansion of fuel networks is not economical under adopted emission levels. © 2020 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.