Alcohol tax cuts and increase in alcohol-positive sudden deaths - a time-series intervention analysis
Alcohol tax cuts and increase in alcohol-positive sudden deaths - a time-series intervention analysis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01715.x
复制
发表时间：
2007-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Poikolainen, Kari
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Koski, Anna;Siren, Reino;Poikolainen, Kari
目的：分析了 2004 年芬兰酒精法规变化对酒精阳性猝死的影响，重点是：(1) 取消从其他欧盟 (EU) 国家进口酒精的旅行者津贴配额，(2) 降低芬兰酒精消费税税率，以及 (3) 爱沙尼亚加入欧盟。设计：使用自回归积分移动平均 (ARIMA) 分析技术来估计这些变化的影响。对 15 年期间的尸检法医毒理学数据进行了分析，以解释季节性和长期变化。总之，数据包括 33 782 例酒精阳性病例（血液中酒精含量至少为 0.20 mg/g）的每周系列和 37 617 例酒精阴性病例的对照系列。背景：芬兰，1990 年至 2004 年。调查结果：旅行者津贴的放开对酒精阳性猝死没有实质性影响，但 2004 年 3 月酒精税减免的影响显着，估计每周新增 8 例酒精阳性死亡，与 2003 年的周平均值相比增加了 17%。爱沙尼亚加入欧盟的影响在统计上并不显着。在应用于酒精阴性死亡对照系列的模型中，没有一个影响系数具有统计显着性。结论：酒精税减免与酒精相关猝死人数的增加有关。这与 2004 年芬兰报告的酒精消费量和与酒精相关的死亡原因的增加相一致。
Aim: The impact of alcohol regulation changes in Finland during 2004 on alcohol-positive sudden deaths was analysed, focusing on: (1) removal of traveller's allowance quotas on alcohol imports from other European Union (EU) countries, (2) lowering of Finnish alcohol excise duty rates and (3) Estonia joining the EU. Design: The impact of these changes was estimated using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analytical technique. Post-mortem forensic toxicology data were analysed over a 15-year period to account for seasonal and long-term variation. In all, the data comprised a weekly series of 33 782 alcohol-positive cases (at least 0.20 mg/g alcohol in blood) and a control series of 37 617 alcohol-negative cases. Setting: Finland in 1990-2004. Findings: The liberation of traveller's allowances had no material impact on alcohol-positive sudden deaths, but the impact of alcohol tax cuts in March 2004 was significant, resulting in an estimated eight additional alcohol-positive deaths per week, which is a 17% increase compared with the weekly average of 2003. The impact associated with Estonia joining the EU was not statistically significant. In the models applied to the control series of alcohol-negative deaths, none of the impact coefficients was statistically significant. Conclusions: Alcohol tax cuts were associated with an increase in the number of sudden deaths involving alcohol. This parallels the reported increases in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related causes of death in 2004 in Finland.