Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the COVID-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?
Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the COVID-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?
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DOI：
10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30268-5
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wesolowski A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Becker AD;Grantz KH;Hegde ST;Bérubé S;Cummings DAT;Wesolowski A
当前的COVID-19大流行导致传染病动态传播模型得到前所未有的发展，并将其纳入政策制定和公共卫生实践。模型提供了一种系统的方法来调查传播动态，并产生短期和长期的预测，明确整合的生物，行为和流行病学的过程，影响疾病的传播，负担和监测的假设。在COVID-19大流行和其他传染病爆发期间，模型是有价值的工具，能够生成疾病负担的可能轨迹，评估干预策略的有效性，并估计关键的传播变量。特别是考虑到模型开发、评估以及与紧急情况下的决策集成的快速步伐，有必要了解传输模型的优点和缺陷。我们回顾并强调了传染病动态模型的历史、严格测试和评估的作用、与数据的整合以及模型成功应用于指导公共卫生的关键方面。而不是一个广泛的历史传染病模型，这次审查的重点是如何整合的建模可以继续通过政策和实践中的适当和认真的方式，以支持当前的流行病应对。
The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about biological, behavioural, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission, burden, and surveillance. Models have been valuable tools during the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks, able to generate possible trajectories of disease burden, evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and estimate key transmission variables. Particularly given the rapid pace of model development, evaluation, and integration with decision making in emergency situations, it is necessary to understand the benefits and pitfalls of transmission models. We review and highlight key aspects of the history of infectious disease dynamic models, the role of rigorous testing and evaluation, the integration with data, and the successful application of models to guide public health. Rather than being an expansive history of infectious disease models, this Review focuses on how the integration of modelling can continue to be advanced through policy and practice in appropriate and conscientious ways to support the current pandemic response.