The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge: National-scale assessment for the British mainland
The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge: National-scale assessment for the British mainland
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126336
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发表时间：
2021-05-29
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Prudhomme, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hughes, A.;Mansour, M.;Prudhomme, C.
地下水系统提供了一个重要的供水来源，也为河流、湖泊和依赖的生态系统提供了基流，因此需要了解气候变化对这些系统的影响。因此，有必要计算地下水系统的补给，以量化地下水平衡中通常最大的组成部分之一。这项研究使用了为英国大陆开发的全国规模的补给模型，以及哈德利中心的11个团队成员，研究由未来流量和地下水位（FFGWL）项目产生的降雨和潜在蒸发，以调查未来气候对地下水资源的影响。整个模拟区域以及英格兰和威尔士的河流流域地区在2050年代和2080年代的季节和每月补给的变化已经得到了计算。补给量的区域总结和月时间序列表现出冬季补给量增加，夏季补给量减少，秋春季混合的趋势。研究表明，冬季降水的增加是增加补给的主要因素。水平衡计算表明，在2050年代和2080年代，气候变化的“信号”占主导地位，超过了年变率，这导致了一个更清晰的模式，即更多的补给集中在更少的月份。这一发现将有助于水资源规划者评估地下水资源对气候变化的适应能力。建议进一步开展工作，以便在今后的分析中了解洪水和干旱事件的顺序以及土壤健康和土地覆盖变化的影响。
Groundwater systems provide an important source of water supply as well as contributing baseflow to rivers, lakes and dependent ecosystems and so the impact of climate change on these systems needs to be understood. Calculating recharge to groundwater systems is, therefore, necessary to quantify what is typically one of the largest components of the groundwater balance. This study uses the national-scale recharge model developed for the British mainland and the 11 ensemble members from the Hadley Centre for rainfall and potential evaporation created by the Future Flows and Groundwater Levels (FFGWL) project to investigate the impact of future climate on groundwater resources. Changes to seasonal and monthly recharge for the 2050s and 2080s time slices have been produced for the whole modelled area and for river basin districts for England and Wales. Areal summaries and monthly time series of recharge values show a generally consistent trend of increased recharge in winter, decreased recharge in summer, and mixed pattern in autumn and spring. The work shows that increased winter rainfall is the main factor in increasing recharge. Water balance calculations reveal that over the 2050s and 2080s, the climate change "signal" predominates over the annual variability, which results in a clearer pattern of more recharge being concentrated in fewer months. This finding should prove useful for water resources planners to assess the resilience of groundwater resources to climate change. Further work is recommended to understand the sequencing of flooding and drought events and to the effects of soil health and land cover changes in the future analysis.