Regional differences in the growing incidence of dengue Fever in Vietnam explained by weather variability.
Regional differences in the growing incidence of dengue Fever in Vietnam explained by weather variability.
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DOI：
10.2149/tmh.2013-24
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发表时间：
2014-03
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Yamamoto T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vu HH;Okumura J;Hashizume M;Tran DN;Yamamoto T
登革热是越南的一个主要健康问题，但各省的发病率有所不同。为了在地方层面了解这一点，我们评估了四种天气因素（湿度、降雨量、温度和阳光）对越南九个省份登革热病例数量的影响。使用负二项式模型对 1999 年至 2009 年的月度数据进行时间序列回归分析。应用异质性测试来评估各省的天气与登革热关联。这些关联具有显着的异质性（对于温度、湿度和日照：P < 0.001 异质性测试；对于降雨：P = 0.018 异质性测试）。这证实天气因素对登革热传播的影响有0到3个月的滞后时间，而且越南不同地区的影响差异很大。这一发现可能会通过建议地方一级的具体计划而不是全国统一的方法来促进登革热疾病的战略预防。
Dengue fever is a major health problem in Vietnam, but its incidence differs from province to province. To understand this at the local level, we assessed the effect of four weather components (humidity, rainfall, temperature and sunshine) on the number of dengue cases in nine provinces of Vietnam. Monthly data from 1999 to 2009 were analysed by time-series regression using negative binomial models. A test for heterogeneity was applied to assess the weather-dengue association in the provinces. Those associations were significantly heterogeneous (for temperature, humidity, and sunshine: P < 0.001 heterogeneity test; for rainfall: P = 0.018 heterogeneity test). This confirms that weather components strongly affect dengue transmission at a lag time of 0 to 3 months, with considerable variation in their influence among different areas in Vietnam. This finding may promote the strategic prevention of dengue disease by suggesting specific plans at the local level, rather than a nationally unified approach.