Economies of Density and Regulatory Change in the U.S. Railroad Freight Industry
Economies of Density and Regulatory Change in the U.S. Railroad Freight Industry
复制标题
美国铁路货运业的密度经济和监管变化
DOI：
10.1086/508308
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Keeler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Bitzan;T. Keeler
1980 年的《斯塔格斯铁路法案》和 1976 年的《铁路振兴和监管改革法案》这两项改革法案代表了美国铁路政策的重大变化。研究人员预测，这些变化带来的一个重要福利收益是铁路货运密度增加带来的效率增益。然而，很少有回顾性研究分析这些预测的准确性。本文通过分析监管变化对货运密度的影响、通过模拟密度增加带来的成本节约、使用新估计的铁路成本函数、并将这些结果与早期预测进行比较来填补这一空白。我们的结果表明，每年净收益为 7 至 100 亿美元（截至 2001 年），这是由于相对于监管下交通密度的增加而节省的成本。这些好处大大高于 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代初研究人员的预测，原因在论文中进行了解释。
Two reform acts, the Staggers Railroad Act of 1980 and the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976, represented big changes in U.S. policy toward railroads. An important welfare gain from these changes predicted by researchers was the efficiency gain from increased densities in rail freight traffic. However, few retrospective studies have analyzed the accuracy of these predictions. The present paper fills this gap by analyzing the effects of regulatory changes on freight traffic density, through simulation of the cost savings from gains in density, using a newly estimated rail cost function, and by comparison of these results with earlier predictions. Our results indicate net benefits of $7–$10 billion per year (as of 2001), stemming from cost savings from increased traffic densities relative to what would have occurred under regulation. These benefits are substantially higher than those predicted by researchers in the 1970s and early 1980s, for reasons explained in the paper.