Hurricane Evacuation Route Choice of Major Bridges in Miami Beach, Florida
Hurricane Evacuation Route Choice of Major Bridges in Miami Beach, Florida
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佛罗里达州迈阿密海滩主要桥梁飓风疏散路线选择
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Gladwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. M. Sadri;S. Ukkusuri;Pamela M. Murray;H. Gladwin
在高风暴潮发生时，疏散是防止生命损失的典型手段，特别是在飓风易发地区。桥梁是瓶颈的关键位置。由于佛罗里达州迈阿密海滩特殊的地理形状和道路网络，居民需要从六个主要桥梁或堤道之一撤离：麦克阿瑟堤道、威尼斯堤道、茱莉亚·塔特尔堤道、约翰·肯尼迪堤道、布罗德堤道和豪弗罗桥。提出了一个混合logit模型，以确定迈阿密海滩撤离人员在主要飓风期间选择这些桥梁之一的决定因素。该模型是通过使用从一项调查中获得的数据开发的，该调查包括一个假设的4级（主要）飓风情景，以揭示该地区撤离人员最可能的计划。估计结果表明，对给定桥梁的偏好涉及变量的复杂相互作用，例如到达疏散目的地的距离，疏散特定特征（疏散日期，时间，模式和目的地）以及疏散者特定特征（性别，种族，疏散经验和生活经验）。模型中正态分布的随机参数解释了不同观测值之间存在未观测到的异质性。这项研究的结果将帮助应急官员和政策制定者制定有效的操作措施和更好的疏散计划，通过确定六座桥梁上的不同比例的人来应对大飓风。
Evacuation is a typical recourse to prevent loss of life if a high storm surge occurs, especially in hurricane-prone regions. Bridges are the key locations of bottlenecks. Because of the specific geographic shape and roadway network of Miami Beach, Florida, residents need to evacuate over one of the six major bridges or causeways: MacArthur Causeway, Venetian Causeway, Julia Tuttle Causeway, John F. Kennedy Causeway, Broad Causeway, and Haulover Bridge. A mixed logit model is presented to identify the determining factors for evacuees from Miami Beach in selecting one of these bridges during a major hurricane. The model was developed by using data obtained from a survey that included a hypothetical Category 4 (major) hurricane scenario to reveal the most likely plans for evacuees from this area. The estimation findings suggest that the preference over a given bridge involves a complex interaction of variables, such as distance to reach the evacuation destination, evacuation-specific characteristics (evacuation day, time, mode, and destination), and evacuee-specific characteristics (gender, race, evacuation experience, and living experience). The normally distributed random parameters in the model account for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity across different observations. The findings of this study will help emergency officials and policy makers to develop efficient operational measures and better evacuation plans for a major hurricane by determining different fractions of people taking each of the six bridges.