Bayesian space-time analysis of Echinococcus multilocularis-infections in foxes
Bayesian space-time analysis of Echinococcus multilocularis-infections in foxes
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vetpar.2011.01.065
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发表时间：
2011-06-30
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Conraths, Franz J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Staubach, Christoph;Hoffmann, Lothar;Conraths, Franz J.
对1990年至2009年在德国图林根州捕获或发现死亡的26220只狐狸进行了多房棘球蚴感染检查，发现6853只动物感染了人类肺泡包虫病的病原体。利用层次贝叶斯时空模型分析了狐类的地理位置（当地社区：地区）和猎捕/死亡日期。利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟技术，根据样本量、每个空间单位和时间间隔的病例数以及城市的邻接矩阵，估计模型参数的分布及其变异率，以评估寄生虫分布的时空变化。用于评估数据的模型是广泛适用的，可用于分析具有差距和每个空间和时间单位的可变样本量的数据集。研究区多房棘球蚴流行率由1990年的11.9%（95%可信区间为9.9% ~ 14.0%）上升至2005年的42.0%（95%可信区间为39.1% ~ 44.1%）。虽然这种感染在1990年仅出现在图林根州西北部的狐狸身上，但到2004年它已经蔓延到整个州。这些结果要求在图林根州提高对人肺泡包虫病的警惕。(C) 2011 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
A total of 26,220 foxes that were hunted or found dead in Thuringia, Germany, between 1990 and 2009 were examined for infection with Echinococcus multilocularis, the causative agent of human alveolar echinococcosis, and 6853 animals were found infected. The available data on the foxes including the location (local community: district) and the date of hunting/death were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model. The distribution of the model parameters and their variability was estimated on the basis of the sample size, the number of cases per spatial unit and time interval, and an adjacency matrix of the municipalities using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation technique to assess the spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of the parasite. The model used to evaluate the data is widely applicable and can be applied to analyse data sets with gaps and variable sample sizes per spatial and temporal unit. In the study area, the prevalence of E. multilocularis increased from 11.9% (95% confidence interval 9.9-14.0%) in 1990 to 42.0% (39.1-44.1%) in 2005. While the infection was present in foxes only in the north-western parts of Thuringia in 1990, it had spread over the entire state by 2004. These results demand increased vigilance for human alveolar echinococcosis in Thuringia. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.