Changes in the Duration of European Wet and Dry Spells during the Last 60 Years
Changes in the Duration of European Wet and Dry Spells during the Last 60 Years
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00498.1
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
O. Zolina;C. Simmer;K. Belyaev;S. Gulev;P. Koltermann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Zolina;C. Simmer;K. Belyaev;S. Gulev;P. Koltermann
摘要利用1950 - 2009年欧洲地区的日雨量计数据，分析了干湿期持续时间的变化。湿润期的持续时间在北欧和俄罗斯中欧地区有统计学上的显著增长，这在冬季尤为明显，平均湿润期的持续时间增加了15%-20%。夏季，斯堪的纳维亚半岛和俄罗斯北部的湿润期缩短。在斯堪的纳维亚半岛和南欧，冬季和夏季的干旱持续时间都在减少。对于变化的湿日数和在这段时间内湿和干日数的重新组合所起的作用的区分，作者建议采用分数截断的几何分布。湿润日数的变化不能解释干湿期持续时间的长期变化。观测到的变化主要是由于干湿日的重新组合。分析了干湿期持续时间的变化趋势。
AbstractDaily rain gauge data over Europe for the period from 1950 to 2009 were used to analyze changes in the duration of wet and dry spells. The duration of wet spells exhibits a statistically significant growth over northern Europe and central European Russia, which is especially pronounced in winter when the mean duration of wet periods increased by 15%–20%. In summer wet spells become shorter over Scandinavia and northern Russia. The duration of dry spells decreases over Scandinavia and southern Europe in both winter and summer. For the discrimination between the roles of a changing number of wet days and of a regrouping of wet and dry days for the duration of the period, the authors suggest a fractional truncated geometric distribution. The changing numbers of wet days cannot explain the long-term variability in the duration of wet and dry periods. The observed changes are mainly due to the regrouping of wet and dry days. The tendencies in duration of wet and dry spells have been analyzed for a numb...