A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns, and predictions
A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns, and predictions
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DOI：
10.1007/s00338-003-0353-y
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Skirving, WJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berkelmans, R;De'ath, G;Skirving, WJ
珊瑚白化事件的详细地图提供了一个机会，以检查10秒至1,000秒公里尺度上的白化的空间格局以及海表温度（SST）与白化之间的空间相关性。我们提供了大堡礁（GBR）两次大规模（2000公里）白化事件的数据：一次来自1998年，另一次来自2002年，都是通过航空测量方法绘制的。我们检查了大量卫星衍生的海温变量，以确定哪一个与观测到的漂白模式最相关。我们发现，在漂白季节，任何3天周期内的最大海温（max3d）比基于异常的海温变量更能预测白化，较短的平均周期（3-6天）比较长的平均周期更能预测白化。因此，短时间的高温对珊瑚造成很大的压力，并导致高度可预测的白化模式。Max3d海温预测白化的存在/不存在，准确率为73.2%。1998年至2002年间，大尺度（GBR-wide）的白化空间模式相似，与近海珊瑚礁相比，更多的近海珊瑚礁白化。白化模式的空间变化发生在类似于10公里的尺度上，表明珊瑚礁在空间集群中白化（或不白化），可能是由于当地天气模式、海洋条件，或两者兼而有之。1998年，大约42%的珊瑚礁出现了一定程度的白化，其中有18%的珊瑚礁出现了强烈的白化，而2002年，有54%的珊瑚礁出现了一定程度的白化，有18%的珊瑚礁出现了强烈的白化。这些统计数据以及2002年近两倍于1998年的近海珊瑚礁白化事件（分别为41%和21%）使2002年的事件成为GBR有记录以来最严重的白化事件。对漂白与max3d海温之间关系的建模表明，升温1度将使珊瑚礁的漂白发生率从50%（1998年和2002年的近似发生率）增加到82%，升温2度将使漂白发生率增加到97%，升温3度将使漂白发生率增加到100%。这些结果表明，珊瑚礁对即使是温和的温度上升也非常敏感，并且在没有适应/适应的情况下，根据国际气候变化专门委员会到2050年的中期预测，珊瑚礁可能会遭受大幅下降。
Detailed mapping of coral bleaching events provides an opportunity to examine spatial patterns in bleaching over scales of 10 s to 1,000 s of km and the spatial correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and bleaching. We present data for two large-scale (2,000 km) bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): one from 1998 and another from 2002, both mapped by aerial survey methods. We examined a wide range of satellite-derived SST variables to determine which one best correlated with the observed bleaching patterns. We found that the maximum SST occurring over any 3-day period (max3d) during the bleaching season predicted bleaching better than anomaly-based SST variables and that short averaging periods (3-6 days) predicted bleaching better than longer averaging periods. Short periods of high temperature are therefore highly stressful to corals and result in highly predictable bleaching patterns. Max3d SST predicted the presence/absence of bleaching with an accuracy of 73.2%. Large-scale (GBR-wide) spatial patterns of bleaching were similar between 1998 and 2002 with more inshore reefs bleached compared to offshore reefs. Spatial change in patterns of bleaching occurred at scales of similar to10 s km, indicating that reefs bleach (or not) in spatial clusters, possibly due to local weather patterns, oceanographic conditions, or both. Approximately 42% of reefs bleached to some extent in 1998 with similar to18% strongly bleached, while in 2002, similar to54% of reefs bleached to some extent with similar to18% strongly bleached. These statistics and the fact that nearly twice as many offshore reefs bleached in 2002 compared to 1998 (41 vs. 21%, respectively) makes the 2002 event the worst bleaching event on record for the GBR. Modeling of the relationship between bleaching and max3d SST indicates that a 1 degreesC increase would increase the bleaching occurrence of reefs from 50% (approximate occurrence in 1998 and 2002) to 82%, while a 2 degreesC increase would increase the occurrence to 97% and a 3 degreesC increase to 100%. These results suggest that coral reefs are profoundly sensitive to even modest increases in temperature and, in the absence of acclimatization/adaptation, are likely to suffer large declines under mid-range International Panel for Climate Change predictions by 2050.