CYCLICALITY OF THE U.S. SAFETY NET
CYCLICALITY OF THE U.S. SAFETY NET
复制标题
美国安全网的周期性
作者：
M. Bitler;H. Hoynes;John Iselin
在本文中，我们探讨了美国安全网在 2000 年代至 2020 年 2 月 COVID-19 危机爆发前的经济高峰期间的周期性。我们比较了经济状况调查计划与社会保险计划的效果，无论是单独还是组合。我们发现，按人均计算，失业保险 (UI) 是迄今为止最具周期性的，特别是在包括全额资助的联邦延期时。失业率每增加 1 个百分点，每月实际失业保险支出就会增加 17%。总体而言，社会保险计划为年度失业率每增加一个百分点，提供额外的人均实际支出 31 美元（2019 年美元），而经济情况调查计划为失业率每增加一个百分点，提供的人均实际支出为 8.50 美元，在统计上微不足道。没有 SSI 的经济状况调查计划为失业率每增加一个百分点提供 12 美元的巨额补贴。因此，经过经济状况调查的安全网中能够快速反应的部分也提供了适度的反周期稳定。最后，我们推测这对于当前应对 COVID-19 的措施意味着什么。
In this paper, we explore the cyclicality of the U.S. safety net over the 2000s through the economic peak in February 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We compare the effects of means-tested programs with those of social insurance programs, separately and combined. We find, on a per capita basis, Unemployment Insurance (UI) is by far the most cyclical, particularly when fully funded federal extensions are included. A 1-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 17 percent increase in monthly real UI spending. Overall, the social insurance programs provide an additional $31 (2019$) in per capita real spending for each percentage point increase in the annual unemployment rate, while the means-tested programs provide a statistically insignificant $8.50 per capita for each percentage point increase in unemployment. The means-tested programs without SSI provide a significant $12 for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Thus, the parts of the means-tested safety net that can respond quickly are also providing modest countercyclical stabilization. We conclude by speculating what this means for the current response to COVID-19.