Trends and indicators for quantifying moth abundance and occupancy in Scotland
Trends and indicators for quantifying moth abundance and occupancy in Scotland
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DOI：
10.1007/s10841-019-00135-z
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Foster, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dennis, E. B.;Brereton, T. M.;Foster, S.
蛾子是苏格兰生物多样性的重要组成部分，鉴于它们作为一种多样性和物种丰富的分类群的价值，具有各种生态系统作用，以及已知的蛾子在英国的减少，有必要对它们的状况进行最新评估。我们使用长期的公民科学数据来产生苏格兰飞蛾的物种水平趋势和多物种指标，以评估种群(丰度)和分布(占有率)的变化。使用Rothamsted昆虫调查计数数据得出苏格兰飞蛾的数量趋势，并首次使用占用模型来估计苏格兰飞蛾的占用趋势，使用国家飞蛾记录计划的机会主义记录。物种水平的趋势被结合起来，以产生丰富度和占有率指标。使用参数自举方法估计相关的不确定度，并与其他已发表的方法进行比较。苏格兰的蛾总丰度(基于176个物种)在1975-2014年间下降了20%，在1990-2014年间下降了46%。入住率指标(基于230个物种)显示，1990-2014年间增长了16%。替代方法产生了类似的指标和结论，表明结果的稳健性，尽管稀有物种在我们的分析中可能被低估。物种丰富度和占居趋势没有明显的相关性；特别是种群趋势为负的物种表现出不同的占居反应。对飞蛾种群数量变化的驱动因素需要进一步研究，但入住率的增加可能是由于夏季气候变暖促进了活动范围的扩大，而种群数量下降的原因可能是栖息地质量下降、土地管理做法的变化以及更温暖、更潮湿的冬季。
Moths form an important part of Scotland's biodiversity and an up-to-date assessment of their status is needed given their value as a diverse and species-rich taxon, with various ecosystem roles, and the known decline of moths within Britain. We use long-term citizen-science data to produce species-level trends and multi-species indicators for moths in Scotland, to assess population (abundance) and distribution (occupancy) changes. Abundance trends for moths in Scotland are produced using Rothamsted Insect Survey count data, and, for the first time, occupancy models are used to estimate occupancy trends for moths in Scotland, using opportunistic records from the National Moth Recording Scheme. Species-level trends are combined to produce abundance and occupancy indicators. The associated uncertainty is estimated using a parametric bootstrap approach, and comparisons are made with alternative published approaches. Overall moth abundance (based on 176 species) in Scotland decreased by 20% for 1975-2014 and by 46% for 1990-2014. The occupancy indicator (based on 230 species) showed a 16% increase for 1990-2014. Alternative methods produced similar indicators and conclusions, suggesting robustness of the results, although rare species may be under-represented in our analyses. Species abundance and occupancy trends were not clearly correlated; in particular species with negative population trends showed varied occupancy responses. Further research into the drivers of moth population changes is required, but increasing occupancy is likely to be driven by a warming summer climate facilitating range expansion, whereas population declines may be driven by reductions in habitat quality, changes in land management practices and warmer, wetter winters.