Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece
Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece
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DOI：
10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.12.005
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Roberts, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deligiannakis, G.;Papanikolaou, I. D.;Roberts, G.
传统的地震危险性评估方法是根据历史地震记录来计算特定地震动水平下的年发生概率。为了解决历史记录的不完整性和不均匀性问题，提高灾害空间分辨率，提出了一种新的断层地震危险性评估方法。这种方法适用于阿提卡地区，这是希腊人口最稠密的地区，因为该国近一半的人口居住在雅典及其周边郊区，在大雅典地区。该方法基于包含24个活动断层的数据库，这些断层在地震破裂时可能对阿提卡造成破坏。该数据库提供有关断层滑动速率、长度和预期震级的信息。该方法的最终输出是四个特定的断层地震危险图，显示每个地方的预期强度的复发。这些地图提供了高空间分辨率，因为它们考虑了地表地质。尽管根据希腊官方地震危险区划，阿提卡地区几乎有一半位于地震风险最低的地区，但在过去的15年里，不同的地区多次经历了强烈的地面运动。此外，每个强度的最大复发发生在阿提卡的不同地方。在雅典盆地的中部观察到强度VII的最高重现性（15 kyrs以上的151-156倍，或高达96年的重现期）。最大强度VIII复发在阿提卡的西部观测到15 kyrs以上的115次，或长达130年的重现期，而最大强度IX（73-77/15 kyrs，或195年的重现期）和X（25-29/15 kyrs，或517年的重现期）在南Alkyonides断层系统附近观察到复发，在阿提卡大陆的西部，它主导着强地面运动的危险。(C)2016爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.