The impact of future emission policies on tropospheric ozone using a parameterised approach
The impact of future emission policies on tropospheric ozone using a parameterised approach
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018
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发表时间：
2018-06-28
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
O'Connor, Fiona M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Turnock, Steven T.;Wild, Oliver;O'Connor, Fiona M.
本研究基于参与空气污染物半球输送特别工作组（TF-HTAP）实验的一系列模式的模拟，利用源-受体关系的简单参数化，量化了对流层臭氧（O-3）的未来变化。地表和对流层O-3的变化仅从前体排放（NOx、CO、挥发性有机化合物- VOCs）和甲烷（CH4）丰度的扰动计算全球和16个区域的O-3变化，忽略气候变化的任何影响。为每个源区域提供了源属性，并根据模型结果的分布对不确定性进行了估计。使用哈德利中心全球环境模型第2版-地球系统配置（HadGEM2-ES）对模型模拟进行的测试证实，在参数化中使用的方法对大多数地区都表现良好。在TF-HTAP第2阶段，O-3对CH4丰度变化的响应略大于TF-HTAP第1阶段评估（2010年），这进一步证明了控制CH4对限制未来O-3浓度的重要性。在计算O-3对CH4丰度和前体排放扰动的响应时，特别是在中东和南亚地区，模式对化学和气象的不同处理仍然是最大的不确定性之一。短期污染物（ECLIPSE）情景对气候和空气质量影响的评估和初步的共享社会经济路径（ssp）子集表明，到2050年，区域表面O-3浓度将增加1至8 ppbv。来源归因分析强调了在当前立法下CH4在未来日益增长的重要性。利用ECLIPSE情景和ssp，仅基于CH4丰度和对流层O-3前体排放的变化，忽略气候变化的任何影响，预测2010 - 2050年全球对流层O-3辐射强迫的变化为+0.07 W m（-2）。目前的立法已被证明不足以限制未来地表臭氧空气质量的退化和近期气候变暖的加剧。未来更严格的排放控制将大大减少地表O-3浓度和O-3辐射强迫。参数化提供了一个简单的工具，可以突出显示局部和半球排放控制策略对地面空气质量和对流层O-3的近期气候强迫的不同影响和相关不确定性。
This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O-3) using a simple parameterisation of source-receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O-3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds - VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance only, neglecting any impact from climate change. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 - Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation perform well for most regions. The O-3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in the TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O-3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remain one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O-3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and south Asia regions. Emission changes for the future Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O-3 concentrations will increase regionally by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A change in the global tropospheric O-3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m(-2) from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O-3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O-3 concentrations and O-3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O-3.