A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM
A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM
复制标题
全球可再生能源系统：ETSAP/TIAM 中的建模练习
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.003
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
I. Stadler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Lund;P. A. Østergaard;I. Stadler
本文旨在测试ETSAP2-TIAM全球能源系统模型，并尝试在现有模型数据库的情况下，它能向全球100%可再生能源系统走多远。这将显示哪些地方满足了全局资源的限制，以及哪些地方满足了迄今为止输入模型的数据的限制。模型的结果是全球和区域能源消耗、温室气体排放以及全球平均气温的潜在上升。此外，还将系统总成本与参考场景进行比较。 TIAM 的现有分析显示了实现 2°C 目标（全球平均温度升高）的不同方式，以及不同因素的不确定性如何影响最佳解决方案。 TIAM 现有分析的主要结论是，2°C 目标是有可能实现的，但成本高昂。另一个非常重要的一点是，如果考虑到气候敏感性 (Cs) 值的不确定性，那么与使用最可能的 Cs 值进行全面前瞻优化相比，最优策略需要尽早采取行动。
This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met. Results from the modelling are global and regional energy consumption, emission of greenhouse gasses and thereby potential increase in global mean temperature. Furthermore, total system costs are compared to a reference scenario. Existing analysis with TIAM shows different ways of reaching the 2°C target (increase in global mean temperature) and also how uncertainty on different factors influences the optimal solution. The main conclusion from existing analysis with TIAM is that the 2°C target is possible to reach, but it will be expensive. Another very important point is that if uncertainty on the value of the climate sensitivity (Cs) is taken into account then the optimal strategy calls for early action compared to a full foresight optimisation using the most probable value of Cs.