Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change
Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.182111
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Allison, Peter A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jones, Lewis A.;Mannion, Philip D.;Allison, Peter A.
珊瑚礁目前正在经历气候驱动的极地范围扩张，有一些证据表明赤道范围收缩。预测它们对未来气候情景的反应对它们的保护至关重要，但生态模型仅基于短期观测。化石记录为生物在扰动气候状态下的长期反应提供了唯一的经验证据。来自末次间冰期（LIG; 125 000年前）的古生物学记录表明，相对于现代分布，礁珊瑚经历了向极地的范围转移和赤道下降。然而，这个记录是时空偏差，现有的方法不能解释数据的缺失。在这里，我们使用生态位模型来估计礁珊瑚的实现生态位和LIG分布，基于现代和化石的发生。然后，我们在两种未来气候变化情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下对模拟的可居住性进行推断。珊瑚礁的范围在LIG相媲美的现在，没有显着的赤道下降的可居住性。在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下，珊瑚礁的分布范围可能会向极地扩展，在赤道大幅度减少。然而，面对人为气候变化，这种范围的扩大可能是乐观的。将化石数据纳入生态位模型，改善了对全球气候变化下生物多样性响应的预测。
Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.