Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2010.0291
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发表时间：
2011-01-13
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Tol, Richard S. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nicholls, Robert J.;Marinova, Natasha;Tol, Richard S. J.
未来气候引起的海平面上升的范围仍然高度不确定，人们仍然担心不能排除二十一世纪海平面大幅上升的可能性。最大的不确定性来源是格陵兰岛和南极洲西部大冰盖的反应。根据我们的分析，到2100年海平面上升的务实估计，即同一时间范围内气温上升4摄氏度或以上，在0.5m到2m之间——高端上升的概率被认为非常低，但概率无法量化。然而，一项指示性分析显示，如果实现的话，其潜在影响是严重的，本世纪将有多达 1.87 亿人（占全球人口的 2.4%）被迫流离失所的真正风险。这种情况可以通过广泛的保护升级来避免，尽管成本相当高，需要高达全球国内生产的 0.02%，并且在某些国家要高得多。成功实施保护的可能性因地区而异，小岛屿、非洲和亚洲部分地区最低，因此这些地区最有可能出现沿海废弃。为了应对这些挑战，需要采取多轨方法，如果预计温升低于 4 摄氏度，这种方法也是合适的。首先，我们应该监测海平面，及时发现海平面上升速度的显着加速。其次，我们需要提高对可能导致海平面快速上升的气候引发过程的理解，特别是两个主要冰盖的作用，以建立更好的模型，更准确地量化未来可能的上升。最后，需要仔细考虑通过减缓气候变化相结合的应对措施，以减少海平面的上升和适应海平面的残余上升。特别是，需要广泛制定针对各种可能的海平面上升（和其他变化）的长期战略适应计划。
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4 degrees C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5m and 2m-the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4 degrees C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.