Climate change decisive for Asia's snow meltwater supply
Climate change decisive for Asia's snow meltwater supply
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x
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发表时间：
2021-06-24
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Immerzeel, Walter W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kraaijenbrink, Philip D. A.;Stigter, Emmy E.;Immerzeel, Walter W.
亚洲高山地区的水流受到雪和冰川融水的影响，确定气候变化对该地区冰冻圈的影响对于了解未来的供水至关重要。季节性降雪的过去和未来变化特别令人感兴趣，因为整个地区的具体情况在很大程度上是未知的。在这里，我们结合联合收割机模型与观测结果表明，区域融雪是一个更重要的贡献者流量比冰川融化，融雪的规模和时间发生了很大变化，在1979年至2019年，未来的雪融水供应可能会急剧减少。然而，预期的变化在很大程度上取决于气候变化的程度，各流域之间存在很大的差异。预测的融雪对气候变化的响应表明，为了维持亚洲高山积雪的重要季节性缓冲作用，必须限制未来的气候变化。一个区域模型结合观测和气候预测显示，1979-2019年期间，融雪减少，比冰川融化更占主导地位，预测表明，减少因流域而异。
Streamflow in high-mountain Asia is influenced by meltwater from snow and glaciers, and determining impacts of climate change on the region's cryosphere is essential to understand future water supply. Past and future changes in seasonal snow are of particular interest, as specifics at the scale of the full region are largely unknown. Here we combine models with observations to show that regional snowmelt is a more important contributor to streamflow than glacier melt, that snowmelt magnitude and timing changed considerably during 1979-2019 and that future snow meltwater supply may decrease drastically. The expected changes are strongly dependent on the degree of climate change, however, and large variations exist among river basins. The projected response of snowmelt to climate change indicates that to sustain the important seasonal buffering role of the snowpacks in high-mountain Asia, it is imperative to limit future climate change.High-mountain Asia streamflow is strongly impacted by snow and glacier melt. A regional model, combined with observations and climate projections, shows snowmelt decreased during 1979-2019 and was more dominant than glacier melt, and projections suggest declines that vary by river basin.