A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China
A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China
复制标题
中国东部地区170年春季植物物候指数
DOI：
10.1002/2013jg002565
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Dai, Junhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ge, Quansheng;Wang, Huanjiong;Dai, Junhu
将物候记录延伸到过去，对于理解过去的生态变化和评估气候变化对生态系统的影响至关重要。欧洲、北美和亚洲的历史物候资料越来越多。在东亚，长期物候序列仍然相对缺乏。本研究从1834-1962年的古日记中提取植物物候观测资料。根据资料可得性，将近现代（1963-2009）的春季物候指数（SPI）定义为3种灌木（Amygdalus davidiana和Cercis chinensis的先花期，Paeonia suffruticosa的盛花期的50%）的平均开花时间。利用校正后的现代传递函数和历史数据，重建了1834 - 2009年中国东部连续SPI时间序列。最近30年的SPI比1970年之前的任何连续30年周期都要早2.1-6.3天。移动线性趋势分析表明，过去30年SPI的上升趋势达到4.1d/ 10年，超过了过去30年观测到的所有趋势。此外，SPI序列与研究区春季（2 ~ 4月）气温显著相关，春季气温每升高1℃，SPI提前3.1d。SPI的变化提供了区域植被-气候关系的重要信息，有助于评估气候变化对生物物理系统和生物多样性的长期影响。
Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834-1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963-2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1-6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1 degrees C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.