El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and U.S. Landfalls
El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and U.S. Landfalls
复制标题
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对大西洋盆地飓风和美国登陆的影响
DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3799.1
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
P. Klotzbach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Klotzbach
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）影响大西洋盆地热带气旋活动的季节水平已在许多先前的论文中得到证实。本文通过研究较长时期（1900-2009）来重新审视这种关系，而不是在早期的分析中进行研究。大尺度气候参数的变化，特别是垂直风切变，被证明是厄尔尼诺年大西洋热带气旋活动减弱的主要原因。研究发现，加勒比地区的气候信号比热带大西洋其他地区要强一些。然后，论文的重点转移到美国登陆，证实了之前的研究，即美国登陆在厄尔尼诺年减少。佛罗里达半岛和东海岸登陆频率的减少幅度大于墨西哥湾沿岸，尤其是大型飓风。在厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和中性年份，给出了每个州受到飓风和大飓风影响的概率。最戏剧性的是……
Abstract El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900–2009) than has been examined in earlier analyses. Alterations in large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are shown to be the primary reasons why tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is reduced in El Nino years. Climate signals are found to be somewhat stronger in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Nino years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes. The probability of each state being impacted by a hurricane and major hurricane is given for El Nino, La Nina, and neutral years. The most dramatic...