Effects of species' ecology on the accuracy of distribution models
Effects of species' ecology on the accuracy of distribution models
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DOI：
10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04823.x
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发表时间：
2007-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Jetz, Walter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McPherson, Jana M.;Jetz, Walter
面对生物多样性的加速丧失和有限的数据，物种分布模型-根据环境相关性统计捕获和预测物种的出现-越来越多地用于为保护战略提供信息。此外，分布模型及其拟合提供了对物种大规模环境生态位的见解。为了研究这些模型的性能是否随物种的生态特征而变化，我们研究了非洲南部和东部1329种鸟类的分布模型。模型构建在两个空间分辨率与逻辑和autologistic回归。卫星衍生的环境指数作为预测因子，模型的准确性进行了评估与三个指标：灵敏度，特异性和曲线下面积（AUC）的接收器操作特性图。然后，我们使用广义线性模型确定了每一个测量精度和10个生态物种特征之间的关系。在测试的生态特征中，物种的分布范围大小，迁移状态，对湿地的亲和力和特有性被证明对分布模型的性能影响最大。经常光顾的栖息地类型的数量（栖息地容忍度），营养等级，体重，首选的栖息地结构和与次分辨率栖息地的关联也表现出一定的影响。与此相反，保护状况没有产生重大影响。这些发现并没有从一个空间分辨率到下一个不同。因此，我们的分析为保护科学家和资源管理人员提供了一个经验法则，有助于区分，在生态特征的基础上，物种的发生可靠或不可靠的分布模型预测。然而，对于大多数物种来说，合理准确的分布模型应该是可以实现的，因为生态特征对模型性能的影响是有限的。这些结果表明，没有一个生态性状的测试提供了一个明显的相关性，环境生态位宽度或种内生态位分化。
In the face of accelerating biodiversity loss and limited data, species distribution models - which statistically capture and predict species' occurrences based on environmental correlates - are increasingly used to inform conservation strategies. Additionally, distribution models and their fit provide insights on the broad-scale environmental niche of species. To investigate whether the performance of such models varies with species' ecological characteristics, we examined distribution models for 1329 bird species in southern and eastern Africa. The models were constructed at two spatial resolutions with both logistic and autologistic regression. Satellite-derived environmental indices served as predictors, and model accuracy was assessed with three metrics: sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics plots. We then determined the relationship between each measure of accuracy and ten ecological species characteristics using generalised linear models.Among the ecological traits tested, species' range size, migratory status, affinity for wetlands and endemism proved most influential on the performance of distribution models. The number of habitat types frequented (habitat tolerance), trophic rank, body mass, preferred habitat structure and association with sub-resolution habitats also showed some effect. In contrast, conservation status made no significant impact. These findings did not differ from one spatial resolution to the next. Our analyses thus provide conservation scientists and resource managers with a rule of thumb that helps distinguish, on the basis of ecological traits, between species whose occurrence is reliably or less reliably predicted by distribution models. Reasonably accurate distribution models should, however, be attainable for most species, because the influence ecological traits bore on model performance was only limited. These results suggest that none of the ecological traits tested provides an obvious correlate for environmental niche breadth or intra-specific niche differentiation.