A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.
A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.
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中国洞穴将过去 500 年来的气候变化、社会影响和人类适应联系起来
DOI：
10.1038/srep12284
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发表时间：
2015-08-13
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Du Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tan L;Cai Y;An Z;Cheng H;Shen CC;Breitenbach SF;Gao Y;Edwards RL;Zhang H;Du Y
一些史前和历史文化的崩溃，包括中国朝代，可能与广泛的干旱有关，这是基于社会危机和基于代理的气候事件的同步性。在这里，我们将中国中部秦岭大禹洞的古代铭文进行了比较，这些铭文描述了公元1520 - 1920年期间七次干旱事件的准确时间和详细影响，并与同一洞穴的高分辨率洞穴沉积物记录进行了比较。对比结果为洞穴沉积物δ 18 O变化、干旱事件和社会动荡之间的关系提供了独特而可靠的检验。通过直接的历史证据，我们的研究结果表明，干旱，甚至是温和的事件中断，否则潮湿的间隔，可以导致严重的社会危机。洞穴沉积物δ 18O模拟结果表明，未来华中地区降水量可能低于近500年平均值。由于秦岭是两大调水工程的主要补给区和许多濒危物种的栖息地，因此必须探索降水减少和/或干旱事件的适应策略。
The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.