The global spread of crop pests and pathogens
The global spread of crop pests and pathogens
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12214
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gurr, Sarah J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bebber, Daniel P.;Holmes, Timothy;Gurr, Sarah J.
目的描述农作物病虫害在世界范围内的传播模式和趋势，确定危害农作物的生物再分布的社会经济、环境和生物学因素。饱和程度，即潜在分布所占的比例，与害虫类型、寄主范围、作物产量、气候和社会经济变量有关。结果超过十分之一的害虫已达到一半以上的寄主国家。如果目前的趋势继续下去，到本世纪中叶，许多重要的农作物生产国将完全被虫害浸透。总体上，随着寄主范围的增加，真菌的散布范围增加，但真菌的寄主范围最窄，但分布最广。一些害虫的全球扩散速度很快，但害虫组合仍然具有很强的区域化，并遵循其宿主的分布。害虫群落与社会经济、气候和纬度显著相关。纬度范围有限的热带主食作物，往往比纬度范围宽的温带主食作物更容易受到虫害和病原体的侵袭。我们列出了未来几年可能是最具侵袭性的害虫。主要结论尽管农作物病虫害和病原体正在扩散，但全球生物同质化的程度仍然是适度的和地区性的限制，但正在增长。尽管真菌病原体的寄主范围更加有限，但它们领导着全球对农业的入侵。气候变化可能会影响未来的分布。改进的监测将揭示更大程度的入侵，特别是在发展中国家。
AimTo describe the patterns and trends in the spread of crop pests and pathogens around the world, and determine the socioeconomic, environmental and biological factors underlying the rate and degree of redistribution of crop-destroying organisms.LocationGlobal.MethodsCurrent country- and state-level distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens and historical observation dates for 424 species were compared with potential distributions based upon distributions of host crops. The degree of saturation', i.e. the fraction of the potential distribution occupied, was related to pest type, host range, crop production, climate and socioeconomic variables using linear models.ResultsMore than one-tenth of all pests have reached more than half the countries that grow their hosts. If current trends continue, many important crop-producing countries will be fully saturated with pests by the middle of the century. While dispersal increases with host range overall, fungi have the narrowest host range but are the most widely dispersed group. The global dispersal of some pests has been rapid, but pest assemblages remain strongly regionalized and follow the distributions of their hosts. Pest assemblages are significantly correlated with socioeconomics, climate and latitude. Tropical staple crops, with restricted latitudinal ranges, tend to be more saturated with pests and pathogens than temperate staples with broad latitudinal ranges. We list the pests likely to be the most invasive in coming years.Main conclusionsDespite ongoing dispersal of crop pests and pathogens, the degree of biotic homogenization of the globe remains moderate and regionally constrained, but is growing. Fungal pathogens lead the global invasion of agriculture, despite their more restricted host range. Climate change is likely to influence future distributions. Improved surveillance would reveal greater levels of invasion, particularly in developing countries.