Phosphate supply security for importing countries: Developments and the current situation
Phosphate supply security for importing countries: Developments and the current situation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.356
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发表时间：
2019-08-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Steiner, Gerald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Geissler, Bernhard;Mew, Michael C.;Steiner, Gerald
磷对地球上所有生命的重要性是毋庸置疑的。作为三大常量营养素之一，它是现代矿物肥料的重要组成部分，因此是全球粮食安全的重要生产要素。其几乎唯一的主要来源是沉积或火成岩成因的磷矿矿床。目前已知的磷矿大量分布在全球各地，但并不一定具有商业上可行的磷矿储量。特别是欧洲，拥有微不足道的可观储备；目前，芬兰只有一座火成岩矿在开采中。因此，进口磷酸盐是不可避免的。鼓励从废水系统中回收磷等对策将减少而不是替代进口。任何形式的磷酸盐贸易都依赖于双边商业协议，因为它不是在商品交易所交易的。因此，关于供应安全的问题，特别是依赖进口的国家供应的安全问题，也必须处理市场集中、动态的储备资源情况以及它们在一段时间内的发展问题。我们通过应用Hirschman-Herfindahl指数（HHI）来量化市场集中度，以及储量与产量之比，以评估近几十年来的发展，从而为整个供应链提供最先进的基础分析。因此，我们克服了这些静态措施的不利性质。结果表明，在整个供应链中，磷矿、磷添加剂和磷肥（MAP、DAP）的生产市场呈中等到高度集中的趋势。但是，这些调查结果不应被解释为依赖进口区域的令人震惊的事态发展，因为磷肥的出口市场集中度自1980年代初以来已显著下降。(C) 2019 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Phosphorus's essentiality for all life on Earth is beyond doubt. As one of the three major macronutrients, it is a crucial building block of modern-day mineral fertilizers and, thus, an essential production factor for global food security. Its almost-exclusive primary sources are phosphate-rock deposits of either sedimentary or igneous origin. The currently known deposits are widely scattered over the globe in large numbers but not necessarily in commercially feasible phosphate-rock quantities. Europe, in particular, possesses negligible considerable reserves; currently, only one Finnish igneous mine is in operation. Thus, phosphate imports are inevitable. Countermeasures like to foster phosphorus recycling from wastewater systems, will reduce rather than substitute imports. Phosphate trade of any form relies on bilateral commercial agreements as it is not traded on commodity exchanges. Therefore, questions regarding supply security and, particularly, the safeness of supply for import-dependent countries, must also address the issues of market concentration, the dynamic reserve-resource situation, and respectively their development over time. We provide a state-of-the-art fundamental analysis all along the supply chain by applying the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) to quantify market concentrations as well as reserve-to-production ratios to evaluate developments over recent decades. Thereby, we overcome the unfavorable nature of these static measures. Results suggest medium to highly concentrated markets for the production of phosphate rock, phosphoric add, and phosphate fertilizers (MAP, DAP) with increasing trends for the overall supply chain. However, these findings should not be interpreted as alarming developments for import-dependent regions, given that the export-market concentrations for phosphate fertilizers have shown significant decreases since the early 1980s. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.